South Korea's President Has No Easy Options in Dealing with an Aggressive North
韓国大統領, 積極的な北朝鮮に対応するのに簡単な選択肢がない




President Park Geun-hye of South Korea in Washington in October, Despite the urging of other leaders of the nation, she has refused to talk to North Korea after its nuclear testing. CreditCarlos Barria / Reuters




SEOUL, South Korea - After North Korea conducted its fifth and most powerful nuclear test this month, South Korea's president, Park Geun-hye, met with her country's opposition leaders to discuss how to react. The outcome was not surprising。


ソウル, 韓国 - 北朝鮮が今月、最大強度となる第5回目の核実験をした後、韓国の朴槿恵大統領は野党指導者たちに会い対応策を議論した。その結果は驚くものではない。


Her liberal political opponents urged her to talk to the government in Pyongyang. Ms. Park, a conservative, said that would be a waste of time. Rather, she said, South Korea and its allies must focus on tightening sanctions, pressing the North to give up its nuclear program or face collapse。


進歩陣営の野党指導者たちは彼女に北朝鮮政府との対話を要求した。保守派の朴大統領は, それが時間の無駄であると述べた。彼女は韓国と同盟国が制裁を強化して北朝鮮が核プログラムを放棄しなければ崩壊に直面するように圧迫しなければならないと述べた。


「This is a battle of wills that we must win, "Ms. Park told the opposition leaders, asking them to support her position. They refused. One of them said later that talking to the president was "like talking to a wall。」




Pyongyang's Sept. 9 nuclear test, its second this year, has sharpened South Korea's decades-old divide over how to deal with its belligerent neighbor, as the North makes what experts consider significant strides in its nuclear arms and missile development. And it has left Ms. Park more embattled than ever as she approaches her last year in office。




While pushing for yet more sanctions, Ms. Park has doubled down on confrontational speech toward both Pyongyang and her domestic critics. This comes just months after she responded to the North's growing threat by embracing an American missile defense system, angering China and dismaying many South Koreans。




Analysts say Ms. Park, who is barred under South Korea's Constitution from seeking re-election next year, has two equally unpalatable options.




She can stay on her current course, facing more provocations from Pyongyang and the likelihood of going down in history as the president during whose term the North completed nuclear weaponization. Or she can try to engage an erratic government that has gone so far as to call her a prostitute, and that has not agreed to discuss the possibility of nuclear disarmament in any future talks.


彼女は現在の路線を維持することにより, 平壌からより多くの挑発と任期中に北朝鮮が核武装を完了した大統領に歴史に残る可能性に直面することになる。または朴大統領を売春婦と呼ぶほどまで、今後の会談で非核化の可能性を議論することに同意していない異常な北朝鮮政府を受け入れるしようと努力することもできる。


"Negotiations may still be possible, but the price to pay to North Korea has become much higher," said Cho Han-bum, an analyst at the Korea Institute for National Unification, a government research organization in Seoul.




Doubts about Ms. Park's North Korea policy have spread even within her own conservative party. While most of its leading contenders to succeed her support sanctions against the North, they have gone further, saying that Seoul should consider asking the United States to bring back tactical nuclear weapons, which it withdrew from the South in the early 1990s. Some party heavyweights have even said the South should build its own nuclear bombs. Ms. Park's government has disavowed both options。


朴大統領の対北朝鮮政策に対する疑問は、保守政党内でも 拡散している。朴大統領の後を継ぐ党内大統領候補のほとんどが彼女の対北朝鮮制裁を支持し、さらには1990年代初めに韓国が保有撤回した戦術核兵器を再導入することができように、米国への要求を検討しなければならないと主張している。党内の一部の指導部級の人事は、韓国が核爆弾を作るべきだとも言う。朴槿恵政府は二つの主張をすべて否定した。


Ms. Park's difficulties have much to do with South Korea's fractured domestic politics, in which liberal and conservative parties have often seized on North Korea as a way to discredit one another。




When progressives were in power from 1998 to 2008, they provided the North with massive shipments of aid, and engaged in investment and trade, betting that such actions would draw Pyongyang out of its hostile posture - what was known as the "sunshine policy".




That decade of engagement slowed North Korea's nuclear pursuits for a time, but did not stop them - the North conducted its first nuclear test in 2006. Ms. Park's conservative predecessor, Lee Myung-bak, who took office in 2008, reversed course, curtailing aid and trade with the North, punishing it with tougher sanctions and refusing to negotiate until it committed to denuclearizing.


10年の包容政策の期間中、北朝鮮の核兵器追求は一時的に鈍化したが、停止することはなかった北朝鮮は、2006年に最初の核実験を行った。朴槿恵政府の前任の保守李明博政府は2008年に執権した後、ルートを変えて, 北朝鮮が非核化を約束するまで交渉を拒否し、強硬策へとスライドさせながら貿易と援助を削減した。


Ms. Park, 64, who became president in 2013, went farther down that path. The prevailing argument in Seoul and Washington - wishful thinking, critics say - was that the North would eventually buckle under economic pressure, or perhaps even implode under the untested leadership of Kim Jong-un, the young leader who came to power in late 2011. After Pyongyang's fourth nuclear test in January, Ms. Park cut the Koreas「last remaining economic tie:a jointly run industrial park in the border town of Kaesong.




But the North's nuclear program has only accelerated in recent years. Three of the North's five nuclear tests have taken place under Mr. Kim, during whose rule the North has tested 31 ballistic missiles, twice as many as it did during the 17 years that his father, Kim Jong-il, was in power. This year alone, the North test-launched 24 ballistic missiles. On Sunday, Yun Byung-se, South Korea's foreign minister, acknowledged that North Korea was "at the final stage of nuclear weaponization.


しかし、北朝鮮の核プログラムは 最近ますます加速している。北朝鮮の5度目の核実験のうち3回がキム・ジョンウン政権下施行されたし、彼の治世中に北朝鮮は31発の弾道ミサイルを試験発射し、これは彼の父の 金正日が執権した17年の間実施した回数の2倍に達する数値だ。今年だけで、北朝鮮は24発の弾道ミサイルを試験発射した。日曜日、ユン・ビョンセ韓国外交部長官は、北朝鮮が「核武装の最終段階に達している」と述べた。


The North's missile threat was Ms. Park's justification for accepting the deployment of an American missile-interceptor battery, known as Thaad(for Terminal High Altitude Area Defense), on South Korean soil, a proposal that had been discussed with Washington for years. But that decision angered China - North Korea's sole major ally, whose cooperation is crucial for enforcing sanctions - which sees Thaad as part of an American effort to encircle it.


北朝鮮のミサイルの脅威は、数年間米国政府と議論していたTHAAD(高高度ミサイル防衛システム)として知られている米国のミサイル迎撃網の韓国領土への配置を受容する朴大統領の正当性を与えた。しかしその決定は、北朝鮮の唯一の主要な同盟国であり, 制裁強化のために協力が必ず必要な中国の怒りを生んだ。中国はTHAADを中国包囲のための米国の施策の一環とみている。


Ms. Park's choice of Washington over Beijing in the dispute has been seen here as a momentous decision and a central part of her legacy. 「When President Park calls Thaad inevitable, she sends a message that when relations between the United States and China turn bad and South Korea has to choose, it will be the United States, "said Lee Jung-chul, a political scientist at Soongsil University in Seoul.


これらの議論では、中国ではなく米国を選択し、朴大統領の決定は 韓国で重大な決定であり, 朴大統領の核心的な業績とされている。イ・ジョンチョル崇実学校政治学教授は, 「朴大統領がサTHAADが避けられないと言ったのは、米国と中国の関係が悪化して韓国がいずれかを選択する必要が場合、それはアメリカということを意味する」と述べた。


The Thaad deployment has been highly contentious here, with many South Koreans seeing their country as a pawn in a contest for supremacy between the two powers. And it has added fuel to the criticism of Ms. Park。


多くの韓国人たちは、米中の大国間の覇権競争の中で人質になると見てTHAAD配置は, 韓国で多くの議論を招いている。また、この問題は、朴大統領への批判をさらに悪化させた。


Choo Mi-ae, the leader of the main opposition party, has called the system "militarily useless" and a "diplomatic checkmate" that pushed China closer to Pyongyang. In a commentary published by the Institute for Far Eastern Studies in Seoul, former Foreign Minister Song Min-soon said the issue had become a "shibboleth」by which South Koreans distinguished political friend from foe。


第1野党チュ・ミエ代表はTHAADシステムを「"軍事的に時代遅れ"であり, 中国と北朝鮮をより緊密にした「外交的ウェトンス」とした。ソウル所在の極東問題研究所が発行した論評でソン・ミンスン前外交部長官は、この問題が韓国人たちが政治的同志と敵を区別する標識がされたと述べた。


Critics have also accused Ms. Park of stoking fear about North Korea to bolster her domestic leadership, a tactic they say recalls the days of her father, the military dictator Park Chung-hee. Last week, warning of a "danger of war" and a」national emergency, "Ms. Park called for "a thorough surveillance of impure domestic forces and those who cause social instability."


批評家は、朴大統領が自身の国内リーダーシップを強化するために、北朝鮮の恐怖をあおったと非難した。論評家は、彼らの戦術が 彼女の父親である軍部独裁者パク・チョンヒ時代を思い出させていると言う。先週「戦争の危険」と「国家非常事態」だと警告し、朴大統領は「不純な国内勢力と社会不安を引き起こす者の徹底した監視」を要求した。


That has reinforced a hard-line image that Ms. Park has had since taking office. During her tenure, it has become fashionable among conservatives to label all anti-government dissidents as "jongbuk, " or followers of North Korea. Her government shut down a small left-wing opposition party on charges of subscribing to North Korea's communist ideology. Ms. Park's language about the North has also become more uncompromising - in recent weeks she has called Mr. Kim "out of control" and "maniacally obsessive."




A poll conducted this week by Gallup Korea found that Ms. Park's approval rating had slipped to 31 percent, essentially unchanged from two weeks earlier, before the North's latest nuclear test. Still, her governing Saenuri party is more popular than the opposition and remains loyal to the president in Parliament。


今週韓国ギャラップが実施された世論調査で, 朴大統領の支持率は31%に低下しており、これは北朝鮮の最近の核実験がある前2週間前から大きな変化がない数値だ。まだ政権セヌリ党は、野党よりも支持率が高く、議会でも大統領に忠実に維持されている。


In recent years, the South Korean military has drawn up plans to launch a pre-emptive strike against the North's leadership at the first indication that it is preparing a nuclear missile attack. Such policies have helped to keep Ms. Park popular among older, more conservative South Koreans, who have vivid memories of the Cold War and revere the anti-Communist stance of her father.


ここ数年の間に、韓国軍は核ミサイル攻撃を準備する最初の兆候が捕捉されると、北朝鮮指導部の先制打撃計画を立てた。このような政策が鮮やかな冷戦の記憶を持っている朴大統領の父の反共政策を崇拝する年齢多く、より保守的な韓国人たちに 朴大統領が人気を維持するのに役立った。


But not everyone is assured. "In adopting a more aggressive posture and acquiring the weapons to match it, South Korea risks raising the chances of conflict on the Korean Peninsula and fostering regional instability in the meantime, "the global intelligence company Stratfor said in a recent analysis.


しかし, すべての人が確信しているわけではない。国際情報会社ストラトフォードは, 最近の分析で、, 「より積極的な立場をとって対応する武器を獲得すると, 韓国は朝鮮半島での紛争の可能性を増加させ, その間に地域の不安定性を造成する危険性を抱くようになる」と分析した。


[原文] 뉴욕타임스, 박근혜 대북 강경노선만 홀로 고집:자주시보